Super Rugby Stock Market: Penultimate Round

For this weeks version I am doing something a little different. There are only two rounds left before Super Rugby play offs and that means certain draft formats are already into their finals.

We’ve done the work to get you through to the final and walking away as the champ!

 considerably higher than their *intrinsic value Because this is the Stock Market, we’ve decided to use he traditional stock terms of:
Bulls – Upward trending player stocks
Bears – Downward trending player stocks
Bubbles – Players we consider to have a higher value over the next few weeks compared to their *intrinsic value

NB: NO CHIEFS OR CRUSADERS DUE TO BYES

Props:

Bull:
Tom Robertson (WAR) 22.6 AVG, 3rd=35.3 –
He has only started the last 3 games this season and his minutes have been steadily growing.

Bear:
Wallabies Tighthead props; Sekope Kepu (28.2 AVG, 3 round AVG (3rd) =35, 5 round AVG (5rd) =38.4) Allan Alaalatoa (35.9 AVG, 3rd=35, 5rd=42.2 are both likely to miss the final round of the season. It is however worth noting that Michael Alaalatoa, the Crusaders starting prop, will likely be dropping minuted with Owen Franks’ return from injury.

Bubble:
Nil

Hookers:

Bulls:
Malcom Marx. The Lions have come into some form and have the vast majority of their playing roster available and uninjured. He already knows how to score well when the team is doing poorly, but when they are currently in some good form.
He has an average of 55.3, 3 round average of 68 and 5 round average of 59.6. His three and five round avg are indicative of the lions form since returning home from tour.

Bears:
Anaru Rangi (REB) – With a 30.8 average, Rangi is misses out on a starting spot the week with the return of Jordan Uelese’s. Expect some decent minutes for Uelese as he has played very few and is a member of the Wallabies training squad.

Bubbles:
It’s Dane Coles and he is back. Enough said?
He has a 34.8 average this season but early in the season he posted scores of 69 and 55.
We warned though, he isn’t starting this week. So hopefully he gets that chance next week… Who better to have in your Grand Final!

Locks:

Bulls:
RG Snyman is a beast. He takes every lineout, they actually don’t even bother with deception anymore, just throw it straight to him. He also has an average of 51, 3 round average of 54 and 5 round average of 50.6.
He should play every minute.

Bears:
Tom Franklin (29.6 AVG, 3rd=31, 5rd=36.6) has played the last 8 games straight and even though they have just had a bye, we think we could see him rotated to the bench for the last match of the season. The Highlanders boast the likes of Hemopo, Pari Pari Parkinson, Dickson and Whetton for lock cover and I would be nervous if I didnt have a lock back up for next week.

Bubbles:
Jackson Hemopo has the highest 3 round average (70.7) in the competition. Throw in a 5 round average of 43.6 and a season average of 34.1 and he is definitely a bubble! He didn’t go away on tour and should be revved and ready for action as he was named to start for this weekends match against the Bulls

Backrow:

Bulls:
Ardie savea. Seriously how can you look past this bloke? He has the top backrower season average, 2nd top 3 round average and top 5 round average. The one speaks for itself.

Akira Ioane. Careful because he may be rested next week but hes is playing the Reds this week and they are the best team to score against as a backrower. In the case he isn’t rested next week they are coming up against the Hurricanes, who are the 4th best team to play.
He season average is a respectable 38.8.

Bears:
Pablo Matera is returning from a rest this week agaisnt the 5th hardest team (Sharks) followed by the hardest team (The Sunwolves) to score against as a backrower.
Throw in the fact that his regular scores of high 40s to 60s and even 70s have slumped to a run of 4 matches high of 21.
His match ups and his form is definitely leaving us bearish.

Bubbles:
Dalton Papalii has been named to start this week on the blindside and if Akira Ioane miss next week with a rest, he would all but be assured a starting spot in the 8 jersery against the easiest team to score against in the backrow (Reds).
He has inconsistent starts but has 0.5 points per minute this season.

Scrum Half:
Bulls:
Hershel Jantjies – 6th average overall with 34.9 points per game, however this week he is playing the Sunwolves, who are the easiest to score points against as a scrum half. Note that next week he is also against the Sharks, who are actually worst for scrum halfs, however he seems to score well against all teams.

Will Genia is sitting 2nd out of the regular starting halfbacks in PPM, however unlike the injured Tate Mcdermott, who is sitting in 1st, he has a high scoring matchups against the Chiefs next week. His 3 round average also sees him sitting in 1st out of the halfbacks with 50pts. Note that he is on his second rest week this week!

Bears:
Brad Weber is the first bull for mine. He is sitting 3rd in total average, however he only has 1 match in the final 2 weeks and that is against the Rebels who are the 2nd hardest match up for halfbacks.

Bubbles:
Jamie Booth – Shigeno, Tanaka, Nagare all in the Japan squad so he has been named to start.
This week they play the Stormers (2nd best for scrum halves), followed by the Jaguares (5th for SH). When starting he has a 40.6 average.

Flyhalf:

Bulls:
Beauden Barrett is hard to look past! He has a 49.2 average while the next highest flyhalf is Bryce Hegarty on 37.1. His 3 round average is 64.7, his 5 rounds average is 59.4 and he scores 0.63 PPM. Beauden has had ample rest weeks, only having played 10 games this season. He has been named to start against the Lions in what I would expect to be a high fantasy point encounter and next week he will take on the Blues at home.

Josh Ioane (29.8 AVG, 3rd-52.7, 5rd=45.4) Was rested from essentially being overworked. With Marty Banks out injured again, the team really needs to lift for their final two games (both home games) if they want to a chance to make the finals.

Bears:
Richie Mo’unga. It’s been a disappointing season for those fantasy managers for whom Richie was a first round draft pick. Whilst the Crusaders play the Rebels this week and will likely dominate, the Rebels play defense with high line speed so it will be another week in which we expect Richie to shovel the ball or look to the cross field kick. He is on a bye next week.

Bubbles:
Matt McGahan slides in here for me as no one really stands out. He is named against at 10 this week for the Reds and seems to possess the required talents needed to score fantasy points.

Centres:

Bulls:
Tevita Kuridrani has run in to some dominant form with a 56 point the round average, 3rd AVerage with Waratahs and Reds to come

Bears:
Reece Hodge – He is playing the Crusaders who are the worst to score against as a centre, followed by the Chiefs who are the 5th worst. Also his 3 round average of 22.7 is a significant drop from his 5 round average of 35.2 points.

Ngani Laumape – will play this week and be rested rd 18. He is currently ranked 2nd on 3 round average (60.7pts) and is playing the Lions this week who are the 4th worst team to play as a centre.

Bubbles:
Santiago Carreras – just scored 56pts with a double, listed as a centre he will round off his season against the Sharks and Sunwolves who are the best to score against for centres.

Jeronimo de la Fuente – Playing Sharks (6th for centres) and Sunwolves (best for centres) and they should win handsomly in both. His 3 round average is also 37.3, up from 22.1 for the season.

Outside Backs:

Bulls:
Curtis Rona is back starting again and is an absolute fantasy weapon. He has a 38 point 5 round average and that is with a few matches off the bench. This week the Waratahs are playing the Brumbies and then Highlanders in rd 18, who concede the most outside back points per game. Has his average despite only starting 7 of his 11 games so far.

Bears:
Chris Feauai-Sautia is 10th on averages for the season with 37.9, however he is coming up against the Blues and Brumbies. Two games they will likely get dusted in.

Sevu Reece has 1 game left before the bye, after his huge start for the year his average has dropped from 60.3 points per match to 28 per match in his last 3.

Bubbles:
Emiliano Boffelli – Playing the Sharks and Sunwolves who the Jaguares should put to the sword in their current form. His average for this season is 28.4, so he is needing to climb a lot, however there are some signs of it happening as he has a 5 round average of 32.5.

Semisi Masiwera (i know right) – He has shown the ability to go big and with the announcement of the Sunwolves June squad he should get plenty of game time. They play the Stormers (7th for outsides) and Jaguares (best for outsides) to finish the year off, so if the Sunwolves don’t fade he could be solid.

Written by Nelson Dale, in collaboration with Harrison Dale and David Carr-Gregg

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